This report does not provide the final word on the effectiveness of counterdrug operations. Indeed, we were disappointed with and often perplexed about the lack of data available on the activities of
interdiction assets. This was most notably the case with the interdiction activities of the Department of
Defense. Ironically, better data was available on what drug traffickers were doing than on the activities of
U.S. drug interdiction assets. Without the requisite data, no statistical procedures, no matter how
sophisticated, can provide compelling arguments about the effectiveness of interdiction programs.
We have developed methods to evaluate program effectiveness, and this report makes recommendations
for how those methods could be employed in future studies. However, the research could be improved in various ways.
Smuggler Interviews
Our smuggler sample over-represented smugglers from Florida and does not include any high-level
smugglers who operated on the southwest border. We made an effort to find high-level smugglers who
operated in this region, but were unable to. Perhaps this is because most of the smugglers who get caught
in this area are "mules", or low-level persons hired for small sums to simply carry the drugs across the
border. In any case, it is a serious limitation and one that future research should address. We would
suggest working with law enforcement officials to identify confidential informants who operate along the
southwest border.
Statistical Analysis
Future analysis should consider the deterrent effect of large seizures. This could easily be incorporated
into the current model. Additionally, follow-on work could consider all events in the CCDB, not just
those used for ICPAWG purposes. We were constrained to the ICPAWG events for this study because of
the time period under consideration (1990–1999). Using all cocaine movement events would provide
more richness to the analysis.
Better interdiction asset data is critical for the modeling. Fluctuations in assets affects the ability to detect
smugglers and hence the quality of data in the CCDB. Significant interdiction assets that contribute at
each stage of the interdiction process (detection, pursuit, and capture), as well as area in which it operates
and date of operation, must be collected.
Last Updated: March 4, 2002
