Prepared for:
Office of National Drug Control Policy
Office of Programs, Budget, Research and Evaluations

United States Coast Guard
Office of Law Enforcement

United States Customs Service

under HHS contract no. 282–98–0006
task order number 3

Prepared by:
Abt Associates, Inc.
1110 Vermont Avenue, NW
Suite 610
Washington, DC 20005–3522

August 2001

Acknowledgements

Disclaimer
Public Domain Notice

Executive Summary

Summary of Results

Interviews With High-Level Drug Smugglers
Summary of Statistical Analysis of Counterdrug Enforcement Operations

Recommendations for Further Research

1. Background

2. Research Approach

Evaluating Deterrence
The Cocaine Threat and Evolution of Drug Trafficking Organizations

3. Interviews With High-Level Cocaine Smugglers

Smuggler Sample
Interview Results

Motivation
Balancing Risk and Reward
Evaluating Deterrence
Organizational Structure

Conclusions

4. Analysis of Effects on Cocaine Prices & Trafficker Behavior

Effect of Deterrent Events on Cocaine Prices

Approximating Cocaine Prices
Methodology

Effect of Deterrent Events on Cocaine Movement

Characterizing Trafficker Behavior
Methodology

Conclusions

Limitations and Improvements

Smuggler Interviews
Statistical Analysis

References

Appendix A: Cocaine Flow Assessment

Introduction
Andean Production

Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Potential Cocaine Production

Source Zone Flow
Transit Zone

Mexico/Central America Corridor
Caribbean Corridor
U.S. Arrival Zone

Trafficker Adaptability

Appendix B: The Evolving Nature of Drug Smuggling Organizations

Introduction
The Original Colombian Cartels

Medellin
Cali
The New Colombian Regime

The Emergence of Mexican Cartels

Mexican Cartel Structure
Juarez Cartel

The Rise of Multi-National Syndicates

Appendix C: Prior Research

Summary

Appendix D: Smuggler Interview Methodology and Details

Sample Selection

U.S. Sentencing Commission Data

Final Sample and Interview Process

Interview Process
The Interview Guide
Sample Description

Appendix DI: Form Used to Code PSR Information

Appendix DII: Outcome at Each Prison Visited

Appendix DIII: Interview Guide

Appendix DIV: Descriptive Information for Smuggler Sample

Appendix DV: Thumbnail Sketches of Smugglers Interviewed

Appendix E: Statistical Methodology

Analysis of Deterrent Events on Cocaine Prices

Methodology
Results

Analysis of Deterrent Events on Cocaine Movement

Characterizing Trafficker Behavior
Methodology
E1.0 Analysis based on Shipments Corroborated by Intelligence
E2.0 Analysis Based on All Known Shipments
E3.0 The Amount of Drugs Transported

Appendix F: Weather Events