Summary

Because of the quality of available data, there is considerable imprecision in estimates of the number of hardcore and occasional users of drugs, the amount of drugs they consume, and the retail sales value of those drugs. The best estimates (all for 1998) follow:

• In 1998, about 3.3 million Americans were hardcore cocaine users, and about 980,000 were hardcore heroin users. The number of hardcore cocaine users has remained fairly stable over the last six years (the figure was 3.9 million in 1988). The number of hardcore heroin users has decreased and then increased. The initial decrease in the number of hardcore heroin users (1990–1992) is probably attributable to the impact of the AIDS epidemic on injection drug users and increasing rates of incarceration, while the rebound in 1993-1995 may be the result of new users progressing to hardcore use.

• About 3.2 million Americans were occasional cocaine users, and about 500,000 were occasional heroin users. (The estimate is 253,000 for 1998, but this is anomalous given the three preceding years.) The number of occasional cocaine users dropped from 6.0 million in 1988, and the number of occasional heroin users increased from 170,000 in 1988.

• More Americans use marijuana than either cocaine or heroin. In 1998, about 11 million Americans had used marijuana at least once in the month prior to being surveyed. The number of marijuana users has remained fairly constant over time, with some dip in use during the early 1990s when prices were relatively high.

• Methamphetamine abuse is now recognized as a major problem, but estimates of the size of the problem are imprecise. Perhaps 300,000 to 400,000 Americans are hardcore methamphetamine users, but trends are difficult to detect.

• Many Americans use illicit drugs other than cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and marijuana, or they may use licit drugs illegally. About 12 million Americans admitted using these other drugs in 1998. These numbers include some overlap of polydrug users.

Deriving estimates of the total expenditure on illicit drugs and licit drugs consumed illegally is more difficult and uncertain because those estimates require more data about amounts used and prices paid. Nevertheless, the best estimates indicate the following:

• In 1998, Americans spent about $39 billion on cocaine, $12 billion on heroin, $1.5 billion on methamphetamine, $11 billion on marijuana, and $2.3 billion on other substances.

• Again, estimating trends is risky, but it appears that expenditures on cocaine, heroin, and marijuana have fallen some over the last decade. However, almost all the reduction can be attributed to a fall in prices.

Estimates of the total amount of cocaine consumed are broadly consistent with estimates of the total amount of cocaine available for consumption in 1998:

• From the supply-side perspective, the cultivation-based estimates imply that fewer than 352 metric tons of pure cocaine were available for consumption in the United States (1998). The event-based estimates imply that more than 212 metric tons were available for consumption.

• From the consumption perspective described in this paper, Americans consumed roughly 290 metric tons of cocaine (1998).

The cultivation estimates are surely overstated. First, they do not account for the actual harvesting of the potential cultivation , and second, they do not account for losses such as consumption in South America. In contrast, the event-based estimates are surely understated, because authorities cannot identify all shipments. Although the supply-based and the consumption-based esti-mates are remarkably close, they cannot be completely reconciled.

This report provides, for the first time, a model of the supply of heroin to the United States. The model cannot fully resolve the problem that Colombia's heroin production potential is somewhat less than estimates of the amount of South American heroin used in the United States. Nor can it fully resolve the observation that Mexico's production potential is more than what is consumed in the United States. Nevertheless, consumption and production estimates are remarkably close.

Although these estimates paint a picture of drug consumption with an extremely broad brush, and although not all estimates can be reconciled, the approach we use provides an important perspective on what is not known about drug production and consumption and what needs to be known to better understand the policy choices available to the Nation.

We make no pretense here that the model and estimates we present in this report are fully adequate to the larger task of informing public policy decisions. They are, at best, a start, but they offer important possibilities of integrating what are otherwise seen as disparate pieces of information about the consumption and supply of drugs.

We expect incremental improvements to the estimates and methods offered here, particularly as better data become available. We also expect improvement in the models. In fact, the Office of National Drug Control Policy has started a project to improve and integrate drug use and supply indicator data. In fact, the Office of National Drug Control Policy has started a program to improve and integrate drug use and supply indicator data. The National Institute of Justice, through its Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring program, has instituted projects to more accurately estimate the number of hardcore drug users and to better describe illicit drug markets. Also, the Substance Abuse Mental Health Services Administrations, through the NHSDA, is implementing an important series of questions about marijuana purchasing practices. These emerging data will greatly improve future versions of these estimates.

Moreover, the estimates by themselves have only modest importance—they tell us nothing more than that the drug trade is large, a conclusion that requires no special study. The real utility of these numbers is the development of a systematic methodology for integrating the various indicators—crops in foreign countries, drugs seized at the borders, arrests made in American cities, etc.—that can help policymakers to better understand the dynamics of the drug trade and to fashion appropriate policy responses.

The current process for integrating this research into policymaker decisions is through the ONDCP Performance Measure of Effectiveness (PME) system. The PMEs set 97 performance targets and 127 associated measures. Many of these targets involve supply-side activity, such as reduction of heroin flow into the United States. These targets are instrumental toward increasing the price of illicit drugs, reducing the supply of illicit drugs, or both. The results of this heroin model are inputs into the PME process, and will therefore be updated on an annual basis.