Challenges
Coca and opium poppy eradication in Colombia was carried out on a large scale from 2002 through 2004. Eradication forces in 2004 sprayed about 120,000 hectares of coca and about 4,000 hectares of opium poppy. Responding in 2004, coca growers re-planted and reconstituted their crops faster than we have seen them do in the past. Opium cultivation was reduced by about half, but coca cultivation held steady for the first time since heavy fumigation began. The areas of greatest coca production were Guaviare, Caqueta, Putumayo, Vichada, Narino and Norte de Santander/Antioquia—areas where there is modest human settlement, but minimal state presence.
We must increase the pressure by increasing aerial eradication to the maximum. If we aerially eradicate 150,000–180,000 hectares of coca this year, even at last year's high reconstitution rate, we can reduce the base significantly—mostly to relatively immature, low-yielding plants. As reconstitution struggles to keep pace with eradication, we need to consider steps we might take to counter the effects of pruning, replanting, and new planting. Part of the effort may require the Government of Colombia to increase its presence in rural areas. President Uribe is standing up units of "home town soldiers" in many such areas, establishing police stations in every municipality, and engaging low-income farmers who live on the land to husband Colombia's natural resources and prevent the entry of coca producers. These programs are ambitious, but considering the re-constitution rate last year, they merit close examination to determine how they might be modified or expanded to reduce the number of reconstituted acres.
A second challenge is to disrupt the cocaine pipeline into Mexico and the United States. Cocaine is shipped in bulk to Mexico and Central America mainly by maritime transporters. Once ashore, government authorities lose track of it as it makes its way north and is distributed to criminal organizations for retail sale all along the route. The affected governments, including Mexico and the United States, have been unable to significantly reduce the flow once it arrives in Central America/Mexico on land. Roughly 90 percent of the cocaine that enters the United States enters through Mexico and is handled by Mexican criminal organizations with distribution networks inside the United States. As we look to the future, it will be necessary to focus more attention on drugs entering from Mexico and work with our southern neighbor to meet the threat posed by organized criminal groups and drug flow numbers.
Our own efforts at reducing the number of cocaine users will be simplified as the availability of the drug is reduced, although U.S. retail price and purity may well be the last indicator to be affected by coca eradication. Drug profit margins are greatest nearest the final consumer and thus provide the broadest area for absorbing upstream increases in expenses.
Part of the explanation for why we have not yet detected a significant change in price and purity of cocaine is due to a time lag likely required to convert leaf in the field to cocaine for sale in the United States. Thus, cocaine on the street in the U.S. today probably comes from coca plants that were harvested in previous seasons; estimates for the time delay range from six months to over a year before a harvested plant is transformed into cocaine on a U.S. street.
Last Updated: May 12, 2005
